Matrix' Odds

[Gillian]

I know you all think I'm a moron, but I think I have something here...

Bodog has Matrix: 84.9 for lower for 20/1.

I don't have an account with them, but I see in Canada, some select theaters are playing Matrix during the daytime already. Plus, it comes out on Thursday... all the die hard fans will go. It's rated R... so lots of kids won't be able to get in... and it's getting crappy reviews. Don't you think $10 on a 20/1 like this is worth it? Maybe I will have to join up. I would like some FRIENDLY feed back please. And BE NICE. I'm learning.

Gil

 

[lakerfan]

I like it. Tons of value.

 

[lakerfan]

I bet it two days ago and it moved to 15/1 but is back to 20/1. Matrix has tons of upside, but under 85M for 3 days is very possible.

 

[Oren1]

Gil, in case you thought I was kidding, I also like the 85-89 million range as well. Lots of people saying 90+, but I think they might just be caught up in the hype...

 

[Royler]

The movie will clear $100 million for the weekend, minimum. That's shooting low. The awareness and tracking numbers are better than any film in history.

 

[Oren1]

what the heck are tracking numbers?

Look at Attack of the Clone's numbers:

Thursday: 30
Friday: 24
Saturday: 31
Sunday: 24
4 day: 110 million
3 day: 80 million

 

[SoundofSilence]

I agree... I really think people are underestimating the hit the "weekend totals" will take due to the movie being released on a Thursday. All the true fans see it the first night of releaes (ala Star Wars). That is one of the major reasons I took X-Men 2 +$15 million against it.

 

[lakerfan]

Royler-

If you want any action at EVEN money on over 100M for the 3 day weekend lets set something up. I'll take it.

 

[Royler]

Lakerfan,

You're talking person-to-person? What would you go up to? Let me think about it for a day or two.

You're pretty sharp, and honestly, the BO grosses are just not my thing, but the only obstacle holding M:R back from over $100 mil this weekend is the "R" rating. And considering the awareness level, I think it's poised to overcome that. If not, it'll be extremely close.

Would you do OV 98 mil?

 

[lakerfan]

Yes, I was thinking person to person. But I was offering it because you were so sure of over 100M, and I would be willing to take the Under at 100M for 3 days. Not budging on the number since you said 100M was the minimum it would do.

I don't think it a sure thing either way by any means. No pressure at all. I just thought it might be a vig free way for us to both get down. If you would rather not, that works for me too.

If you want to do it, by the end of the day just name the amount here up to $1000 in a post and we have a bet. By Monday I will likely have a couple of outs to bet it and and better info, so today is the last day I will make the bet.

We can settle up by Neteller transfer or any other means after next weekend.

All the best either way.

 

[player250]

I have an sell order up at tradesports.com, a sell order that it wont make it over 115 million, I'm wagering a 1000 to win a 1000 if anyone will take it.. I've already have a little action at -125. I don't know much about the box office grosses but the highest R rated film gorss over a 3 day weekend is arount 58 million for Hannibal. With showings on Wednesday and Thursday It has to be nearly impossible for it to make it to 115 million. Good luck.

 

[Royler]

Laker,

Been thinking about it a little more. I think the gross for the film will ultimately be decided by how leinent the theaters will be in letting the teens in. One thing that works in the film's favor is that it's not a "hard" R, and tons of kids will probably be dragging their parents to it, who shouldn't object...not in the same way they'd rather not sit through "American Pie" or something.

Furthermore, it's set to have the widest opening ever. I think it will *easily* become the highest-grossing "R" opening ever, and something tells me it's going to settle into the 90s.

Even Joel Silver says expectations are unrealistic due to the rating, but...really, I think history could be made here.

I'll take you on at EV money for the OV $100 million, but because I'm not overly confident, let's keep it to a hundred bucks.

At issue is whether Warners will tally in the Wednesday/Thursday grosses into the total.

 

[lakerfan]

Sounds good Royler. $100 it is.

 

[player250]

[/QUOTAt issue is whether Warners will tally in the Wednesday/Thursday grosses into the total.E]
Lakerfan,
Can I get some action if Wed and Thurs is part of the weekendL

 

[lakerfan]

Player,

Wed/Thursday is not part of the total. See the four times I mention "3 day weekend above". After reading Roylers post above. I assume he means that Warner might try to spread a little of Wednesday money into the weekend actual total. It happens. But 3 day actual is what we are going by. That is what the whole thread has been about. If I am wrong Royler let me know.

lakerfan

 

[Royler]

Nope, we're definitely going by Fri-Sun grosses only. I just think it'll be confusing initially, and when a numbers gets released, I'm sure there will be controversy over whether they snuck in the midweek totals.

I think it would be fair to hinge the wager on Matrix grosses AND X-Men 2 grosses, since everyone buying a ticket for X2 will be doing so only to sneak in to Reloaded.